From Staff Reports
Shared from the Navarro County Office of Emergency Management Facebook page.
Morning Operational Update from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth
Bottom Line
Widespread severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A couple of tornadoes could be strong.
Overview
A Pacific cold front will move through late this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms will develop primarily along or just ahead of the front. Storms will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
The greatest severe weather threat exists along and east of the I-35/I-35W corridor.
Storms will develop into a fast moving squall line as they reach the I-35 corridor (around 6 pm Thursday), and the primary threats with the line will be damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and embedded tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall is possible across Northeast Texas and may result in minor flooding, especially in low-lying and flood prone areas.
Windy conditions will develop behind the front late this afternoon and evening and continue into early Friday morning. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible behind the front across all of North and Central Texas.
Forecaster Confidence – HIGH
What We Are Certain Of:
A few strong storms will continue this morning across Central Texas through midday, with hail the primary threat.
A severe weather risk exists for all of North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening.
The highest potential for severe weather will be this evening along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Storms will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Strong post-frontal winds are expected behind the front, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.
The threat for severe weather will end as the front passes each location.
What We Are Less Certain Of:
Where storms will develop along the warm front this afternoon and early evening.
The react timing of the front. This will impact the storm development location and timing, and the degree of severe weather risk in the afternoon across western portions of North and Central Texas.
Attached are the current @_nwsspc_ Convective Outlook, Tornado Outlook, Hail Outlook, and Wind Outlook. Navarro County is circled in blue.
In addition, WFAA has updated: “Shortly after 10:30 a.m., the National Weather Service expanded the Level 4 out of 5 “moderate” risk level to include most of North Texas, increasing the threat of strong storms throughout the day.
A Level 4 storm threat can include the likelihood of widespread severe storms that can bring up to baseball-size hail, wind gusts up to 75 mph and tornadoes.
The primary concern with that line of storms will be strong wind gusts (60-70mph) and large hail (quarter to golf ball size). With a line of storms, the tornado threat is certainly not zero, but it is lower than with individual supercell type storms. Within that line there could be a few brief spin-up tornadoes.
Those storms will then form into a line and sweep across North Texas arriving in D-FW anywhere from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.”
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